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There has been a shift in thinking about cyberwar, according to professor Greg Austin from the University of New South Wales Canberra Cyber.
“This is a huge policy agenda. In most countries, it has been subordinated to the urgency of setting in place or updating basic cybersecurity strategies, a challenge that has been exacerbated by constantly escalating threats and low-budget allocations in most sectors,” Austin wrote.
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“Those national jurisdictions that have moved on cyber civil defence have put in place some foundation stones, but these may wait a decade or more to see an edifice of mature cyber civil defence take form. This is especially the case in federal systems of governments where law enforcement and emergency response rests with sub-national governments.”
China and Russia threats aren’t overblown
“There’s no doubt that the Chinese feel so vulnerable in cyberspace that they feel they’ve got to understand everything about the enemy and be able to strike first. They also feel vulnerable in relative military power. So in a Taiwan contingency, most people believe that the United States and its allies would, in a normal sort of military conflict with China, [at least a] short one, the United States would prevail. And RAND Corporation thinks that,” Austin told ZDNet.
“If there was a military confrontation looming between China and the United States, we would see in the early part of that escalation increased activity against US and allied electricity infrastructure. Now whether that’s to take it out, or just to position to take it out, or begin to disrupt it, who knows. But this is definitely on the military agenda of China, the United States, and Russia.”
One of the “most amazing statements” Austin has heard in recent years was the UK government’s announcement that it would be prepared to black-out Moscow in the event of certain contingencies.
“Absolutely mind-blowing. And it’s that sort of thing which accounts for the Putin statement on isolating Russia from the internet, more than the domestic political control.”
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